President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the United States’ trade deficit has dropped 78 percent because of his administration’s tariff policy, and he predicted the figure will turn positive this year for the first time in decades, according to a post on the social platform Truth Social.
“The united states trade deficit has been reduced by 78% because of the tariffs being charged to other companies and countries,” trump wrote. “it will go into positive territory during this year, for the first time in many decades. thank you for your attention to this matter!”
While U.S. trade data show the deficit has narrowed in recent quarters, economists and official statistics do not support the claim that tariffs alone drove a 78 percent reduction or that the balance of trade, the difference between exports and imports, is on track to become positive in 2026.
U.S. Census Bureau figures released this year show the annual merchandise trade deficit remains in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and analysts say broader factors including global demand, supply chain shifts and currency movements have influenced recent changes.
Trump’s tariff regime, which imposed significant duties on steel, aluminum and other imports from allies such as Canada, the European Union and China, has been controversial.
Supporters argue tariffs protect domestic industries, while critics say they act as taxes on U.S. consumers and businesses and strain diplomatic relations.
Almost all mainstream economic analyses find that tariffs tend to raise consumer costs and disrupt supply chains, and economic research suggests a complex mix of factors drives trade balances.
Last week, six House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a resolution aimed at rolling back Trump’s tariffs on Canada in a 219-211 vote, reflecting growing tension within the GOP over trade policy.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett recently criticized a Federal Reserve Bank of New York paper that estimated 90 percent of the tariff costs were paid by U.S. consumers.
The U.S. trade deficit which measures the gap between imports and exports remains a widely tracked economic indicator, and while it has fluctuated recently, experts say it is too early and too simplistic to attribute a near-80 percent reduction solely to tariff policy.
